As the holiday season approaches, moviegoers are preparing for a highly anticipated cinematic showdown set to unfold around the Thanksgiving weekend. November 22 marks the arrival of two major titles: Universal’s adaptation of the Broadway hit “Wicked” and Paramount’s sequel “Gladiator II.” With early tracking figures suggesting impressive opening weekend earnings—approximately $80 million for “Wicked” and $65 million for “Gladiator II”—the films are poised not only to dominate the box office but also to captivate diverse audiences, albeit with differing demographic appeal.
“Wicked” appears to resonate particularly well with female audiences, making it an attractive option for groups planning outings during the holiday break. The film’s early buzz is bolstered by presales that reportedly outstrip those of its competitors, including the upcoming “Beetlejuice” sequel, reflecting the tendency of women, particularly, to organize group cinema trips in advance. In contrast, “Gladiator II” seems to attract a broader audience demographic, appealing primarily to male viewers while also resonating with older women. This indicates a potentially diverse box office draw, suggesting that although “Wicked” may attract larger presales, “Gladiator II” could benefit from a wider interest spectrum, making it a strong contender in the overall viewing landscape.
If current projections hold, “Wicked” stands to make history with an opening weekend that would surpass previous records for films adapted from Broadway shows. The projected gross of over $80 million would eclipse the current record held by “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which earned $51 million upon its debut. Likewise, “Gladiator II,” with a predicted opening above $65 million, has the potential to set new benchmarks for both lead actor Denzel Washington and director Ridley Scott. The original “Gladiator” earned a mere $34.8 million when it debuted in 2000, showcasing a substantial evolution in audience expectations and box office capacity over the years, particularly for a sequel to a beloved classic.
Holiday Release Strategy
The timing of both releases is critical, coinciding with one of the busiest moviegoing periods of the year—the week of Thanksgiving. Black Friday has historically been a lucrative day for cinema, further increasing the chances that either film could achieve exceptional earnings. While “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” are expected to compete directly for audiences, the holiday atmosphere might also allow both films to flourish simultaneously, with families and friends keen to escape into the world of cinematic storytelling.
Interestingly, Universal deliberately chose to split “Wicked” into two films, setting Part 1 for release in 2023 and Part 2 for 2025. This strategy aims to sustain long-term engagement with the franchise while managing audience anticipation. Originally, “Wicked” was slated to premiere against Disney’s “Moana 2,” but it shifted to its current release date alongside “Gladiator II,” allowing both projects to maximize their audience draw. However, the competition is not merely between these two films; the presence of other family-friendly options like “Moana 2” complicates the landscape, potentially siphoning off viewers.
Both films have been receiving considerable early praise, with specific mentions of “Wicked” from its original Broadway star, Kristin Chenoweth, who has enthused over its quality. Such endorsements from established talents can significantly influence public perception and create positive pre-release momentum. As both films gear up for their respective openings, the effectiveness of marketing strategies, such as Universal’s promotion of “Wicked” during key events like the Paris Olympics and the Super Bowl, will undoubtedly impact audience turnout.
The imminent release of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” represents a significant moment in contemporary cinema, blending nostalgia with the excitement of new narratives. Each film possesses unique strengths in audience engagement, box office potential, and cultural significance. How they perform in their opening weekend could redefine the box office landscape and reshape the trajectory for future film adaptations and sequels in the industry.