The recent U.S. presidential election, marked by Donald Trump’s victory over Democrat Kamala Harris, has sent ripples across the globe, especially in China. As the political landscape in the United States pivots towards a Trump-led administration, Beijing is bracing itself for intensified rivalries in domains such as trade, technology, and security. Trump’s supporters turned out in significant numbers, securing him a broader share of the votes compared to the previous election cycle. Chinese analysts and strategists are now contemplating the ramifications of Trump’s victory, especially as it pertains to U.S.-China relations.
While Trump’s ascendancy was a concerning prospect for Chinese leadership, it wasn’t entirely unexpected. Commentators in Beijing have indicated that they foresaw a closely contested election, harboring an awareness that Trump’s policies could further complicate bilateral ties. In response to the outcome, China’s leadership is likely to adopt a strategy that projects strength while attempting to maintain a form of cordiality in their interactions with Trump.
The Threat of a Trade War
One of the most pressing issues on the table is Trump’s approach to trade, which promises to include threats of significant tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially exceeding 60%. Moreover, the prospect of stripping China of its most-favored-nation trading status creates a palpable sense of anxiety within Chinese markets and industries. China, which has been reliant on exporting goods worth over $400 billion to the U.S. annually, is especially cautious of another trade conflict.
With internal economic challenges already brewing in China, the specter of heightened hostilities in trade could exacerbate these issues. The fear is underscored by the likelihood that Trump will pursue a policy aimed at decoupling technological and supply chain ties, a move that could stymie China’s aspirations for robust economic growth and stability. In light of these potential threats, it is anticipated that China will redouble its efforts towards achieving technological self-sufficiency and seek stronger ties with alternative trading partners.
Cognizant of the realities presented by a Trump administration characterized by isolationist and anti-globalism tendencies, China is likely to seek deeper alliances with the Global South, Europe, and Northeast Asia. The shift in U.S. foreign policy could create a vacuum that Beijing is poised to fill. Recent diplomatic overtures from Beijing towards its neighbors, including a thawing of relations with India and outreach to Japan, signal a strategic pivot that positions China as a key player in regional geopolitics.
The ongoing uncertainties in U.S. commitments to international agreements provide China with an opportunity to strengthen its influence in countries that may feel neglected by an increasingly transactional U.S. foreign policy. Consequently, analysts are observing a calculated effort by Beijing to establish new partnerships across various regions, thereby enhancing its global standing.
Trump’s tenure also raises significant concerns for democratically governed Taiwan. His recent remarks suggesting that Taiwan should contribute to its defense costs could be perceived as destabilizing in an already tense cross-strait relationship. This contrasts sharply with the previous Biden administration’s approach, which included heightened military support for Taiwan and a more aggressive stance against Chinese assertiveness in the region.
Such shifts indicate an evolving landscape in U.S.-Taiwan relations, one that complicates China’s strategic calculations. The potential for increased U.S. military presence and support for Taiwan could prompt China to adopt a more aggressive stance in its foreign policy, particularly with respect to its territorial claims and regional security concerns.
As the dust settles on the U.S. election result, it is evident that China is bracing itself for a prolonged period of rivalry with the United States. Trump’s victory promises not only a continuation of the contentious trade debates but also an escalation in the geopolitical stakes surrounding technology and regional security. By adapting to these challenges with strategic ingenuity, China aims to bolster its own international position and mitigate the potential fallout from a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy. In navigating this intricate landscape, the Chinese leadership will undoubtedly remain vigilant and proactive, seeking both to safeguard its domestic priorities and extend its influence on the global stage.